NÆRINGSØKONOMISK INSTITUTT - NØI

THE INSTITUTE OF INDUSTRIAL ECONOMICS - INDECO

Web: http://www.indeco.no  - ISSN 0802-2364 - Org. nr 992945818 - tlf/fax 22 37 65 84 - Oslo - e-mail indeco@online.no


New crude oil price forecasts from INDECO

Nye råoljepris-prognoser fra NØI

NØI-INDECO's model for the crude oil market

The following analysis and forecasts are based on the market share variation model, a general conjectural game oligopoly model with dynamic aspects, originally presented in NØI-INDECO's Forskningsrapport nr 2 (1987): "Næringsøkonomi - Fokus på petroleumsbransjen" - Research Report no 2 (1987): "Industrial Economy - Focus on the Petroleum Branch", ISBN 82-90748-02-7, ISSN 0802-2364, quoting:

ABSTRACT. This report surveys international literature on industrial organization and economics, focusing the case of exhaustible resources, especially oil and natural gas. Satiation elasticities and a market share variation model are used as conceptual framework, in addition to the usual concepts of oligopoly theory and exhaustible resource management. The main conclusion is the following: Changes in the suppliers way of competing, i.e. the marketshare degree, and positive satiation elasticities, may to a large extent explain the market development and the price formation of the trade.

SAMMENDRAG. Denne rapporten refererer internasjonal litteratur på feltet næringsøkonomi og "industrial organization", med fokus på lagerressurser, spesielt petroleumsbransjen. Metningselastisiteter og en markedsandels-variasjonsmodell blir brukt som begrepsramme, i tillegg til de vanlige begrepene fra oligopolteori og forvaltning av lagerressurser. Hovedkonklusjonen er følgende: Endringer i konkurranseform, det vil si markedsandelsgraden, og positiv metningselastisitet, kan i stor grad forklare markedsutviklingen og prisdannelsen i bransjen.

This oil market model, in a bit simplified form, is also presented with the basic formulas, as a submodel of NØI-INDECO's general Cogrips-model, see the footnotes at (click on:) Samgripingsmodell - Cogripsmodel. Notat til Ragnar Frisch Seminar.

Forecasts and historical prices

19.11.2008: The crude oil demand in a) China, India and other emerging economies and b) in the oil-producing countries, will still be relatively high, but c) the demand in the OECD countries will be lowered a bit due to economic depression. We however don't think this depression will be as deep as many suggest. The recession will be met with countercyclical policy to stabilize aggregate demand via monetary, fiscal and other policies. This will however probably take some time to be efficient. The G20 meeting in Washington DC medio November 2008 promised to rewrite accounting standards and some regulations by the end of March 2009 and gather for a second summit by the end of April. Thus we estimate that the price shall further down a bit from Oct. to Nov. and Dec.

16.08.2011: There are signs that the economic depression in most OECD countries will last to at least to 2014, and contribute to moderate demand for crude oil. The continued economic depression is mainly due lack of use of Cogrips-models and Cogrips-policy, see the note Cogrips-models and Cogrips-policy vs Keynes-models and Keynesian policy. The crude oil demand in a) China, India and other emerging economies and b) in the oil-producing countries, will however still be relatively high.

Too small cut from OPEC

The OPEC supply cut of 1.5 million barrels per day from 01.11.2008 is probably not sufficient to keep the average crude oil price at about 60 US $ per barrel for November. The average price  for November is more likely to be at about 50 US $ per barrel. Iran , OPEC's number two oil producer, favours a cut in crude production of 1.0 to 1.5 million barrels per day when the oil cartel meets at an extraordinary meeting in Cairo 29.11.2008, state television reported on Saturday 15.11.2008. The OPEC aim of a crude oil price between 70 and 100 US $ per barrel is probably not within reach with such small cuts in production. We estimate that an OPEC cut of more than 3 million barrels a day is necessary to reach a benchmark at about 65 US $ per barrel in December. The OPEC action is uncertain, but we estimate that the average price for November will be between 45 and 65 US $ per barrel. The bear market will probably continue in January, February and March 2009.  Our updated estimate of the world's average crude oil price for 2008 is 97 US $ per barrel. The 2008 monthly averages are: Jan. 92, Feb. 95, Mar. 104, Apr. 109, May 123, Jun. 132, Jul. 133, Aug. 113, Sep. 97, Oct. 72, Nov. 52, Dec. 40.

The 2009 monthly forecasts are: Jan. 35-65, Feb. 35-65, Mar. 35-65, Apr. 35-65, May 35-65, Jun. 45-75, Jul. 55-85, Aug. 55-85, Sep. 55-85, Oct. 55-85, Nov. 55-85, Dec. 60-90.
The 2009 monthly averages are: Jan. 43, Feb. 43, Mar. 47, Apr. 50, May 57, Jun. 69, Jul. 64, Aug. 73, Sep. 68, Oct. 73, Nov. 77, Dec. 74. - Average for 2009, 62.

The 2010 monthly forecasts are: Jan. 60-90, Feb. 60-90, Mar. 60-90, Apr. 65-95, May 65-95, Jun. 65-95, Jul. 65-95, Aug. 65-95, Sep. 65-95, Oct. 67-97, Nov. 67-97, Dec. 68-98.
The 2010 monthly averages are: Jan. 76, Feb. 74, Mar. 79, Apr. 85, May 76, Jun. 75, Jul. 76, Aug. 77, Sep. 78, Oct. 83, Nov. 85, Dec. 91. - Average for 2010, 80.

The 2011 monthly forecasts are: Jan. 75-105, Feb. 77-107, Mar. 90-120, Apr. 100-130, May 105-135, Jun. 105-135, Jul. 95-125, Aug. 100-130, Sep. 105-135, Oct. 90-120, Nov. 90-120, Dec. 90-120.
The 2011 monthly averages are: Jan. 97, Feb. 104, Mar. 115, Apr. 123, May 115, Jun. 114, Jul. 117, Aug. 110, Sep. 113, Oct. 110, Nov. 111, Dec. 108. - Average for 2011, 111.

The 2012 monthly forecasts are: Jan. 90-120, Feb. 100-130, Mar. 100-130, Apr. 105-135, May 105-135, Jun. 90-120, Jul. 80-110, Aug. 90-120, Sep. 90-120, Oct. 90-120, Nov. 90-120, Dec. 90-120.
The 2012 monthly averages are: Jan. 111, Feb. 119, Mar. 125, Apr. 120, May 110, Jun. 95, Jul. 103, Aug. 113, Sep. 113, Oct. 112, Nov. 109, Dec. 109. - Average for 2012, 112.

The 2013 monthly forecasts are: Jan. 90-120, Feb. 90-120, Mar. 90-120, Apr. 90-120, May 90-120, Jun. 90-120, Jul. 85-115, Aug. 85-115, Sep. 95-125, Oct. 90-120, Nov. 90-120, Dec. 90-120.
The 2013 monthly averages are: Jan. 113, Feb. 116, Mar. 108, Apr. 102, May 103, Jun. 103, Jul. 108, Aug. 111, Sep. 112, Oct. 109, Nov. 108, Dec. 111. - Average for 2013, 109.

The 2014 monthly forecasts are: Jan. 90-120, Feb. 90-120, Mar. 90-120, Apr. 90-120, May 90-120, Jun. 90-120, Jul. 95-125, Aug. 95-125, Sep. 95-125, Oct. 80-110, Nov. 70-100, Dec. 50-80.
The 2014 monthly averages are: Jan. 108, Feb. 109, Mar. 107, Apr. 108, May 110, Jun. 112, Jul. 107, Aug. 102, Sep. 97, Oct. 87, Nov. 79, Dec. 62. - Average for 2014, 99
.

The 2015 monthly forecasts are: Jan. 40-70, Feb. 40-70, Mar. 40-70, Apr. 40-70, May 40-70, Jun. 40-70, Jul. 45-75, Aug. 45-75, Sep. 30-60, Oct. 30-60, Nov. 30-60, Dec. 30-60.
The 2015 monthly averages are: Jan. 48, Feb. 58, Mar. 56, Apr. 60, May 64, Jun. 61, Jul. 57, Aug. 47, Sep. 48, Oct. 48, Nov. 44, Dec. 38. - Average for 2015, 52
.

The 2016 monthly forecasts are: Jan. 20-50, Feb. 20-50, Mar. 20-50, Apr. 25-55, May 25-55, Jun. 25-55, Jul. 30-60, Aug. 30-60, Sep. 30-60, Oct. 30-60, Nov. 30-60, Dec. 30-60.
The 2016 monthly averages are: Jan. 31, Feb. 32, Mar. 38, Apr. 42, May 47, Jun. 48, Jul. 45, Aug. 46, Sep. 47, Oct. 50, Nov. 45, Dec. 53. - Average for 2016,
??.

The 2017 monthly forecasts are: Jan. 40-70, Feb. 40-70, Mar. 40-70, Apr. 40-70, May 40-70, Jun. 40-70, Jul. 40-70, Aug. 40-70, Sep. 40-70, Oct. ??-??, Nov. ??-??, Dec. ??-??.
The 2017 monthly averages are: Jan. 55, Feb. 55, Mar. 52, Apr. 52, May 50, Jun. ??, Jul. ??, Aug. ??, Sep. ??, Oct. ??, Nov. ??, Dec. ??. - Average for 2017, ??.

The figures are crude approximations.

In the very long run an average estimate is about 150 US $ per barrel, this price is due to efficient backstop technology in relation to solutions to the manmade global warming problem. A backstop technology provides resources at a constant marginal cost, adjusted for inflation, for an indefinitely long time. As the solution to the manmade global warming problem seems to be delayed, the use of efficient backstop technology may also be postponed, and lower the forecasts until later on. The development of a shale oil industry could, along with other fuel sources, help mitigate rising prices of petroleum in the coming decades. The shale oil production has a break even at about 60 US $ per barrel. In the coming years an average crude oil price much above 60 US $ per barrel is unlikely.

Among the many reasons that INDECO and many oil producers, importers and exporters, are bracing for a serious oil price hike and/or high oil prices in general are:

These factors indicate where oil prices are going to go in 2015 to 2030. Also earlier, from 2010 - 2015, a significant hike in crude oil prices may occur due to these factors.

15.11.2008. Perhaps we will see a price hike already in the autumn 2009? (It happened).  

P.S. On the meeting 29.11.2008 the OPEC members did not cut their supply. The Iranian Oil minister, Gholam Hossein Nozari, said a cut may be announced at the Opec meeting in Algeria on 17 December. Members of the OPEC had pledged to lower output by 1.5 million barrels per day for November, but were only 66 percent compliant with the target last month. Russian action, US $ exchange rate, inventories figures and weather conditions are also uncertain. However the 65 US $ per barrel benchmark for December is most likely out of reach. The average price for November will be a bit above 50 US $ per barrel, between 45 and 65 US $ as we estimated above, and will soon be updated. Update 08.12.2008. The average price for November is about 52 US $ per barrel, and we have adjusted the forecast for December. Update 12.12.2008. Demand for oil will grow in 2009 after shrinking this year according to the International Energy Agency. The prediction from the IEA is in stark contrast to the US government's Energy Information Administration, EIA, which said this week that demand is expected to shrink next year. The IEA which is an adviser to 28 industrialised countries sees demand rebounding, on the assumption the global economy will gradually recover in the second half of next year.

Update 17.12.2008. Big oil projects are put in jeopardy by fall in prices. In the short run, falling oil prices are leading to welcome relief at the pump. But the project delays are likely to reduce future energy supplies, and we believe they may set the stage for another surge in oil prices once the global economy recovers. OPEC has decided to cut oil production 2.2 million barrels per day starting next month. The cut is the largest ever announced by OPEC. World oil supply growth slowed to 165 kb/d in November, averaging 86.5 mb/d, with OPEC crude supply curbed by 760 kb/d to 31.3 mb/d on weakening demand. Thus the OPEC cut, if effective and cet. par., will cut world supply about 2.5 %. A cut in world supply about 3 %, perhaps more, is probably necessary to hike the price to 60-65 US $ per barrel in January. The short term effect, for December, is uncertain, but an average price between 40 and 50 US $ per barrel is likely. Since there is no OPEC cut in December the 65 US $ per barrel benchmark is probably out of reach.

Update 10.01.2009. The average price for December was 40 US $ per barrel, just within our forecast 40 - 65 US $ per barrel. Oil prices rose above $ 50 a barrel on Tuesday 06.01.2009 amid a growing belief that OPEC is succeeding in delivering cuts in production. Evidence of OPEC compliance with its recently approved cuts continued to emerge, with Iran cutting oil supplies to at least two of its Asian refiners by 14 per cent this month. Oil prices will however remain under pressure as long as oil demand continues falling faster than OPEC cuts supplies. The average price for January 2009 is forecasted to be between 35 and 65 US $ per barrel, and the same for February and March. There is a race between falling demand and OPEC's cut, and so far OPEC has not followed up sufficiently. If this continues, which is most likely, the price will probably be in the lower end of the interval. Update 07.02.2009. The average price for January was about 43 US $ per barrel, in the lower end of the interval as forecasted. Update 09.03.2009. The average price for Februray was about 43 US $ per barrel, in the lower end of the interval as forecasted.

Update 15.03.2009. OPEC ministers agreed on Sunday to leave existing output targets unchanged, but promised to enforce those curbs more strictly and said they would meet again on May 28 at the headquarters in Vienna to review progress. OPEC has since September decided to lower targets by 4.2 million barrels per day (bp/d). OPEC adherence has been estimated at roughly 80 percent and full compliance would take away more than 800,000 bp/d more. Thus, the average price for March will probably be in the lower end of the interval. Update 08.04.2009. The average price for March was about 47 US $ per barrel. The average price for April 2009 is forecasted to be between 35 and 65 US $ per barrel, and the same for May and June. Update 12.05.2009. The average price for April was about 50 US $ per barrel.

Update 09.06.2009. The average price for May was about 57 US $ per barrel. We have adjusted the forecast for June up 10 US $ per barrel. 29.06.2009. New crude oil price forecasts for July, August and September, see above. 21.07.2009. The average price for June was about 69 US $ per barrel. Update 15.08.2009. The average price for July was about 64 US $ per barrel. Update 16.09.2009. The average price for August was about 73 US $ per barrel. OPEC leaves crude output targets unchanged on the meeting 10.09.2009. Update 10.10.2009. The average price for September was about 68 US $ per barrel. Crude oil price forecasts for October, November and December, see above. Update 19.11.2009. The average price for October was about 73 US $ per barrel. Update 17.12.2009. The average price for November was about 77 US $ per barrel.

Update 22.12.2009. OPEC opted to leave production volumes unchanged, a decision that could lead to short-term stability for energy prices after a volatile year. Some OPEC nations cheat on the production quotas, putting more oil than they had agreed to on the market to raise sorely needed revenue. Compliance with those quotas is believed to have dropped from 80 percent at the beginning of the year to 60 percent now, however world demand is increasing slowly. Crude oil price forecasts for January, February and March 2010, see above.

Update 11.01.2010. The average price for December 2009 was 74 US $ per barrel. The average price for the year 2009 was about 62 US $ per barrel. Update 25.02.2010. The average price for January was 76 US $ per barrel. Update 13.04.2010 The average price for February was 74 US $ per barrel. The average price for March was 79 US $ per barrel. Crude oil price forecasts for April, May and June 2010, see above. Update 15.05.2010. The average price for April was 85 US $ per barrel. Update 30.06.2010. The average price for May was 76 US $ per barrel. The demand in China, India and other emerging economies will probably be relatively high in the coming months, but the G20 meeting in Toronto indicates a very likely continued depression in the OECD countries. Crude oil price forecasts for July, August and September 2010, see above. Update 18.07.2010. The average price for June was 75 US $ per barrel. Update 12.09.2010. The average price for July was 76 US $ per barrel, and for August 77 US $ per barrel. Update 03.10.21010. Crude oil price forecasts for October, November and December 2010, see above. Update 10.11.2010. The average price for September was 78 US $ per barrel, and for October 83 US $ per barrel.

Update 04.01.2011. The average price for November 2010 was 85 US $ per barrel. Crude oil price forecasts for January, February and March 2011, see above. NØI-INDECO forecasts the crude oil price may reach 100 US $ per barrel some days during the first quarter of 2011. Update 01.02.2011. The average price for December 2010 was 91 US $ per barrel and the average for the year 2010 was about 80 US $ per barrel. 31.01.2011 the crude oil price reached 100 US $ per barrel for the first time since 2008, mainly due to the unrest i Egypt. 01.02.2011 the crude oil price was a little above 100 US $ per barrel. Update 27.02.2011. The average price for January was 97 US $ per barrel. INDECO's 04.01 forecast for March 2011: 79-109 US $ per barrel, is outdated due to the unrest in North Africa and the Middle East. New forecast for March is 90-120 US $ per barrel. 23.02.2011 the crude oil price was about 110 US $ per barrel. The situation is extreme volatile and if the oil fields in Libya will be shut down, the crude oil price may perhaps even reach 200 US $ per barrel. Update 04.04.2011. The average price for February was 104 US $ per barrel. The last week in March the average crude oil price was about 115 US $ per barrel. The situation is still extreme volatile, mainly due to speculation. Crude oil price forecasts for April, May and June 2011, see above. Update 10.04.2011. The average price for March was about 115 US $ per barrel. Tuesday 05.04.2011 the price was about 123 US $ per barrel.

Update 30.06.2011. The average price for April 2011 was 123 US $ per barrel and for May 115 US $ per barrel. Crude oil price forecasts for July, August and September 2011, see above. Crude fell late in June after the International Energy Agency said it will make 60 million barrels available over a 30-day period, half of which will come from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Some analysts said the price decline could be temporary. This move might assuage the market this summer, but it is probably not a long-term fix. Update 20.07.2011. The average price for June was about 114 US $ per barrel. Update 16.08.2011. The average price for July was about 117 US $ per barrel. Update 19.09.2011. The average price for August was about 110 US $ per barrel. Update 01.10.2011. Taking into account lower growth forecasts for the world economy, the monthly averages for the crude oil price are expected to be between 90 and 120 US $ per barrel for October, November and December 2011. Update 02.11.2011. The average price for September was about 113 US $ per barrel. Update 14.11.2011. The average price for October was about 110 US $ per barrel.

Update 03.01.2012. Crude oil price forecasts for January, February and March 2012 are 90-120 US $ per barrel. Due to stress in the Strait of Hormuz a crude oil price above 120 US $ per barrel is possible. If the Strait of Hormuz should be more or less shut down a crude oil price above 150 US $ per barrel is possible. Update 12.01.2012. The average price for November was 111, for December 108 and for the year 2011 111 US $ per barrel. Update 20.02.2012. The average price for January was 111 US $ per barrel. The forecasts for February and March have been revised upwards with 10 US $ per barrel. Update 30.03.2012. Crude oil price forecasts for April, May and June 2012 are 105-135 US $ per barrel. Update 09.04.2012. The average price for February was 119 and for March 125 US $ per barrel. Update 11.05.2012. The average price for April was 120 US $ per barrel. Update 25.05.2012. The forecast for June has been revised downwards 15 US $ per barrel. Update 20.06.2012. The average price for May was 110 US $ per barrel. Update 26.06.2012. Crude oil price forecasts for July, August and September 2012 are 70-100 US $ per barrel. Update 23.07.2012. The forecasts for July, August and September 2012 have been revised upwards with 10 US $ per barrel. The average price for June was 95 US $ per barrel. Update 14.08.2012. The forecasts for August and September 2012 have been revised upwards with 10 US $ per barrel. Update 16.08.2012. The average price for July was 103 US $ per barrel. Update 30.09.2012. The average price for August was 113 US $ per barrel. The monthly averages for the crude oil price are expected to be between 90 and 120 US $ per barrel for October, November and December 2012. Update 01.11.2012. The average price for September was 113 US $ per barrel. Update 23.11.2012. The average price for October was 112 US $ per barrel. Update 19.12.2012. The average price for November was 109 US $ per barrel.

Update 30.12.2012. The monthly averages for the crude oil price are expected to be between 90 and 120 US $ per barrel for January, February and March. Update 05.02.2013. The average price for December 2012 was 109 US $ per barrel. Update 31.03.2013. The monthly averages for the crude oil price are expected to be between 90 and 120 US $ per barrel for April, May and June. The average price was 113 US $ per barrel in January 2013, and 116 in February. Update 27.05.2013. The average price was 108 US $ per barrel in March 2013, 102 in April and for the year 2012 112 US $ per barrel. Update 01.07.2013. The average price for May was 103 US $ per barrel. Crude oil price forecasts for July, August and September 2013 are 85-115 US $ per barrel. Update 29.08.2013. The forecast for September has been revised upwards with 10 US $ per barrel due to unrest in the Middle East. The average price for June was 103 US $ per barrel and for July 108 US $ per barrel. Update 01.10.2013. The monthly averages for the crude oil price are expected to be between 90 and 120 US $ per barrel for October, November and December 2013. The average price in August 2013 was 111 US $ per barrel.

Update 01.01.2014. The monthly averages for the crude oil price are expected to be between 90 and 120 US $ per barrel for January, February and March. The average price in September 2013 was 112, October 109 and November 108 US $ per barrel. Update 15.02.2014. The average price in December 2013 was 111 US $ per barrel. Update 01.04.2014. The average price for 2013 was 109 US $ per barrel, and the price for January 2014 was 108 and for February 2014 109 US $ per barrel. The monthly averages for the crude oil price are expected to be between 90 and 120 US $ per barrel for April, May and June. Update 30.06.2014. The average price in March 2014 was 107 US $ per barrel and for April 2014 108 US $ and for May 2014 110 US $ per barrel. Crude oil price forecasts for July, August and September 2014 are 95-125 US $ per barrel. Update 30.09.2014. The average price in June 2014 was 112 US $ per barrel and for July 2014 107 US $ and for August 2014 102 US $ per barrel. Crude oil price forecasts for October, November and December 2014 are 80-110 US $ per barrel. Update 14.11.2014. The forecasts for November and December have been revised downwards with 10 US $ per barrel. The average price for September was 97 US $ per barrel and for October 87 US $ per barrel. Update 30.11.2014. The forecast for December has been revised downwards with 20 US $ per barrel.

Update 29.12.2014. The monthly averages for the crude oil price are expected to be between 40 and 70 US $ per barrel for January, February and March 2015. Update 06.02.2015. The average price for November 2014 was 79 US $ per barrel and for December 62 US $ per barrel. Update 30.03.2015. The monthly averages for the crude oil price are expected to be between 40 and 70 US $ per barrel for April, May and June 2015. The price for January 2015 was 48 and for February 2015 58 US $ per barrel. Update 29.06.2015. Crude oil price forecasts for July, August and September 2015 are 45-75 US $ per barrel. The average price in March 2015 was 56 US $ per barrel and for April 2015 60 US $ and for May 2015 64 US $ per barrel. Update 25.08.2015. The forecast for September has been revised downwards with 15 US $ per barrel due to economic trouble in China. The average price in June 2015 was 61 US $ per barrel and for July 2015 57 US $. Update 30.09.2015. The average price for August 2015 was 47 US $ per barrel. Crude oil price forecasts for October, November and December 2015 are 30-60 US $ per barrel.

Update 01.01.2016. The monthly averages for the crude oil price are expected to be between 20 and 50 US $ per barrel for January, February and March 2016. The average price for September 2015 was 48, October 48 and November 44 US $ per barrel. Update 26.01.2016. The average price for December 2015 was 38 US $ per barrel. The average price for 2014 was 99 US $ per barrel and the average price for 2015 was 52 US $ per barrel. Update 31.03.2016. The monthly averages for the crude oil price are expected to be between 25 and 55 US $ per barrel for April, May and June 2016. The price for January 2016 was 31 and for February 2016 32 US $ per barrel. Update 30.06.2016. Crude oil price forecasts for July, August and September 2016 are 30-60 US $ per barrel. The average price in March 2016 was 38 US $ per barrel and for April 2016 42 US $ and for May 2016 47 US $ per barrel. Update 30.09.2016. The average price in June 2016 was 48 US $ per barrel and for July 2016 45 US $ and for August 2016 46 US $ per barrel. Crude oil price forecasts for October, November and December 2016 are 30-60 US $ per barrel.

Update 28.12.2016. The monthly averages for the crude oil price are expected to be between 40 and 70 US $ per barrel for January, February and March 2017. The average price for September 2016 was 47, October 50 and November 45 US $ per barrel. Update 31.03.2017. The monthly averages for the crude oil price are expected to be between 40 and 70 US $ per barrel for April, May and June 2017. The average price for December 2016 was 53 US $ per barrel. The price for January 2017 was 55 and for February 2017 55 US $ per barrel. Update 30.06.2017. The monthly averages for the crude oil price are expected to be between 40 and 70 US $ per barrel for July, August and September 2017. The average price in March 2017 was 52 US $ per barrel and for April 2017 52 US $ and for May 2017 50 US $ per barrel.

Some crude oil prices, dayly and historical:

WTRG: http://www.wtrg.com/

CNN: http://money.cnn.com/markets/commodities.html

BLOOMBERG: http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/

EIA: http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_spt_s1_d.htm

World demand and supply, also forecasts:

IEA: http://www.iea.org/

OPEC supply and prices:

http://www. opec .org/

Energy reserves - oil, gas and coal:

EIA: http://www.eia.gov/cfapps/ipdbproject/iedindex3.cfm?tid=5&pid=57&aid=6&cid=ww,&syid=2011&eyid=2015&unit=BB