NÆRINGSØKONOMISK INSTITUTT - NØI

THE INSTITUTE OF INDUSTRIAL ECONOMICS - INDECO

Web: http://www.indeco.no  - ISSN 0802-2364 - Org. nr 992945818 - tlf/fax 22 37 65 84 - Oslo - e-mail indeco@online.no


New crude oil price forecasts from INDECO

Nye råoljepris-prognoser fra NØI

NØI-INDECO's model for the crude oil market

The following analysis and forecasts are based on the market share variation model, a general conjectural game oligopoly model with dynamic aspects, originally presented in NØI-INDECO's Forskningsrapport nr 2 (1987): "Næringsøkonomi - Fokus på petroleumsbransjen" - Research Report no 2 (1987): "Industrial Economy - Focus on the Petroleum Branch", ISBN 82-90748-02-7, ISSN 0802-2364, quoting:

ABSTRACT. This report surveys international literature on industrial organization and economics, focusing the case of exhaustible resources, especially oil and natural gas. Satiation elasticities and a market share variation model are used as conceptual framework, in addition to the usual concepts of oligopoly theory and exhaustible resource management. The main conclusion is the following: Changes in the suppliers way of competing, i.e. the marketshare degree, and positive satiation elasticities, may to a large extent explain the market development and the price formation of the trade.

SAMMENDRAG. Denne rapporten refererer internasjonal litteratur på feltet næringsøkonomi og "industrial organization", med fokus på lagerressurser, spesielt petroleumsbransjen. Metningselastisiteter og en markedsandels-variasjonsmodell blir brukt som begrepsramme, i tillegg til de vanlige begrepene fra oligopolteori og forvaltning av lagerressurser. Hovedkonklusjonen er følgende: Endringer i konkurranseform, det vil si markedsandelsgraden, og positiv metningselastisitet, kan i stor grad forklare markedsutviklingen og prisdannelsen i bransjen.

This oil market model, in a bit simplified form, is also presented with the basic formulas, as a submodel of NØI-INDECO's general Cogrips-model, see the footnotes at (click on:) Samgripingsmodell - Cogripsmodel. Notat til Ragnar Frisch Seminar.

Forecasts and historical prices

Crude oil - US $ per barrel

The 2009 monthly forecasts are: Jan. 35-65, Feb. 35-65, Mar. 35-65, Apr. 35-65, May 35-65, Jun. 45-75, Jul. 55-85, Aug. 55-85, Sep. 55-85, Oct. 55-85, Nov. 55-85, Dec. 60-90.
The 2009 monthly averages are: Jan. 43, Feb. 43, Mar. 47, Apr. 50, May 57, Jun. 69, Jul. 64, Aug. 73, Sep. 68, Oct. 73, Nov. 77, Dec. 74. - Average for 2009, 62.

The 2010 monthly forecasts are: Jan. 60-90, Feb. 60-90, Mar. 60-90, Apr. 65-95, May 65-95, Jun. 65-95, Jul. 65-95, Aug. 65-95, Sep. 65-95, Oct. 67-97, Nov. 67-97, Dec. 68-98.
The 2010 monthly averages are: Jan. 76, Feb. 74, Mar. 79, Apr. 85, May 76, Jun. 75, Jul. 76, Aug. 77, Sep. 78, Oct. 83, Nov. 85, Dec. 91. - Average for 2010, 80.

The 2011 monthly forecasts are: Jan. 75-105, Feb. 77-107, Mar. 90-120, Apr. 100-130, May 105-135, Jun. 105-135, Jul. 95-125, Aug. 100-130, Sep. 105-135, Oct. 90-120, Nov. 90-120, Dec. 90-120.
The 2011 monthly averages are: Jan. 97, Feb. 104, Mar. 115, Apr. 123, May 115, Jun. 114, Jul. 117, Aug. 110, Sep. 113, Oct. 110, Nov. 111, Dec. 108. - Average for 2011, 111.

The 2012 monthly forecasts are: Jan. 90-120, Feb. 100-130, Mar. 100-130, Apr. 105-135, May 105-135, Jun. 90-120, Jul. 80-110, Aug. 90-120, Sep. 90-120, Oct. 90-120, Nov. 90-120, Dec. 90-120.
The 2012 monthly averages are: Jan. 111, Feb. 119, Mar. 125, Apr. 120, May 110, Jun. 95, Jul. 103, Aug. 113, Sep. 113, Oct. 112, Nov. 109, Dec. 109. - Average for 2012, 112.

The 2013 monthly forecasts are: Jan. 90-120, Feb. 90-120, Mar. 90-120, Apr. 90-120, May 90-120, Jun. 90-120, Jul. 85-115, Aug. 85-115, Sep. 95-125, Oct. 90-120, Nov. 90-120, Dec. 90-120.
The 2013 monthly averages are: Jan. 113, Feb. 116, Mar. 108, Apr. 102, May 103, Jun. 103, Jul. 108, Aug. 111, Sep. 112, Oct. 109, Nov. 108, Dec. 111. - Average for 2013, 109.

The 2014 monthly forecasts are: Jan. 90-120, Feb. 90-120, Mar. 90-120, Apr. 90-120, May 90-120, Jun. 90-120, Jul. 95-125, Aug. 95-125, Sep. 95-125, Oct. 80-110, Nov. 70-100, Dec. 50-80.
The 2014 monthly averages are: Jan. 108, Feb. 109, Mar. 107, Apr. 108, May 110, Jun. 112, Jul. 107, Aug. 102, Sep. 97, Oct. 87, Nov. 79, Dec. 62. - Average for 2014, 99.

The 2015 monthly forecasts are: Jan. 40-70, Feb. 40-70, Mar. 40-70, Apr. 40-70, May 40-70, Jun. 40-70, Jul. 45-75, Aug. 45-75, Sep. 30-60, Oct. 30-60, Nov. 30-60, Dec. 30-60.
The 2015 monthly averages are: Jan. 48, Feb. 58, Mar. 56, Apr. 60, May 64, Jun. 61, Jul. 57, Aug. 47, Sep. 48, Oct. 48, Nov. 44, Dec. 38. - Average for 2015, 52.

The 2016 monthly forecasts are: Jan. 20-50, Feb. 20-50, Mar. 20-50, Apr. 25-55, May 25-55, Jun. 25-55, Jul. 30-60, Aug. 30-60, Sep. 30-60, Oct. 30-60, Nov. 30-60, Dec. 30-60.
The 2016 monthly averages are: Jan. 31, Feb. 32, Mar. 38, Apr. 42, May 47, Jun. 48, Jul. 45, Aug. 46, Sep. 47, Oct. 50, Nov. 45, Dec. 53. - Average for 2016, 44.

The 2017 monthly forecasts are: Jan. 40-70, Feb. 40-70, Mar. 40-70, Apr. 40-70, May 40-70, Jun. 40-70, Jul. 40-70, Aug. 40-70, Sep. 40-70, Oct. 40-70, Nov. 40-70, Dec. 40-70.
The 2017 monthly averages are: Jan. 55, Feb. 55, Mar. 52, Apr. 52, May 50, Jun. 46, Jul. 48, Aug. 52, Sep. 56, Oct. 58, Nov. 63, Dec. 64. - Average for 2017, 54.

The 2018 monthly forecasts are: Jan. 40-70, Feb. 40-70, Mar. 40-70, Apr. 50-80, May 50-80, Jun. 50-80, Jul. 55-85, Aug. 55-85, Sep. 55-85, Oct. 60-90, Nov. 60-90, Dec. 50-80.
The 2018 monthly averages are: Jan. 69, Feb. 65, Mar. 66, Apr. 72, May 77, Jun. 74, Jul. 74, Aug. 73, Sep. 79, Oct. 81, Nov. 65, Dec. 57. - Average for 2018, ??.

The 2019 monthly forecasts are: Jan. 45-75, Feb. 45-75, Mar. 45-75, Apr. 50-80, May 50-80, Jun. 50-80, Jul. ??, Aug. ??, Sep. ??, Oct. ??, Nov. ??, Dec. ??.
The 2019 monthly averages are: Jan. 59, Feb. 64, Mar. ??, Apr. ??, May ??, Jun. ??, Jul. ??, Aug. ??, Sep. ??, Oct. ??, Nov. ??, Dec. ??. - Average for 2019, ??.

The figures are crude approximations.

Some crude oil prices, daily and historical:

WTRG: http://www.wtrg.com/

CNN: http://money.cnn.com/markets/commodities.html

BLOOMBERG: http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/

EIA: https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_spt_s1_d.htm

World demand and supply, also forecasts:

IEA: http://www.iea.org/

OPEC supply and prices:

http://www. opec .org/

Energy reserves - oil, gas and coal:

EIA: http://www.eia.gov/cfapps/ipdbproject/iedindex3.cfm?tid=5&pid=57&aid=6&cid=ww,&syid=2011&eyid=2015&unit=BB